Cameron stares down MP revolt on EU poll

LONDON: The Prime Minister, David Cameron, returning from an EU summit where he had a furious row with the French President, Nicolas Sarkozy, was facing a backbench revolt last night from Conservatives who want a referendum on pulling out of the European Union.
As tempers frayed on Sunday among several European leaders struggling to agree on how to fix the deepening euro zone crisis, Mr Cameron fought for the right to have a say in the final plan to be hammered out in Brussels on Wednesday.
Initially only the 17 countries that use the single currency were to be at the midweek emergency meeting over debt but Mr Cameron insisted the union’s other members be allowed to have a say.
Mr Sarkozy retorted: “You have lost a good opportunity to shut up … We are sick of you criticising us and telling us what to do. You say you hate the euro and now you want to interfere in our meetings.”
Mr Cameron has cancelled a trip to Japan and New Zealand to attend tomorrow’s summit.
It was agreed that all 27 EU countries would debate the crucial rescue measures – to recapitalise banks, boost the bail-out fund and write down Greek debt – but only the 17 euro countries will vote on them.
At Mr Cameron’s insistence, leaders inserted into the final communique a promise to safeguard a level playing field for non-euro nations.
Europe’s troubles have bolstered the cause of Britain’s euro-sceptics, who fear the cost of future bailouts and who want to wrestle certain regulatory powers back from Brussels.
Mr Cameron has suggested that if treaty changes were required for a euro rescue plan Britain might agree to back them if it got some of its powers back.
But Mr Cameron has said it is not the time for a referendum and has given his MPs a “three-whip” order, the strongest instruction possible, to vote against the proposal on pain of losing their government positions. “I don’t think this is the right time to legislate for an in/out referendum,” Mr Cameron said. “This is the right time to sort out the euro zone’s problems, defend your national interest and look to the opportunities there may be in the future to repatriate powers back to Britain. Obviously the idea of some limited treaty change in the future might give us that opportunity.”
The vote overnight is expected to be the largest revolt he has faced as a leader, with up to 90 defying him, although the proposal is still likely to fail as Labour and the Liberal Democrats are expected to vote against it.
But Mr Cameron’s authority will be undermined if he is challenged by up to a third of his parliamentary party.
Meanwhile Mr Sarkozy and the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, attacked Italy’s Silvio Berlusconi, demanding he take tougher measures to get Italy’s debt under control. Markets fear Italy could be the next economy to succumb to a sovereign debt crisis.
The weekend summit agreed in principle on a €100 billion ($133.8 billion) plan to recapitalise Europe’s banks, expected to be announced tomorrow.

First published in the Sydney Morning Herald.

Scandal stalks race for Irish presidency

THE campaign to be the ninth president of Ireland has been distinguished by the rattling of skeletons in closets, with two candidates now carrying bruises from old bones that fell out of cupboards and into the glare of the media.
Following a series of controversies, big names have been left trailing in the final week of campaigning before Thursday’s vote, and a relative outsider, Sean Gallagher, has leapfrogged to the top of the list alongside grand old man Michael D. Higgins.
“It has been a nasty and insubstantial campaign and the result is a little like ‘last man standing’,” says Adrian Guelke, professor of comparative politics at Queen’s University, Belfast. “The candidates who have offended the least have got to the top. Michael D. and Sean Gallagher don’t offend lots of people.”
Current President Mary McAleese, a barrister and academic admired for her skilled peacemaking, was re-elected for a second term unopposed seven years ago.
She built bridges with Northern Ireland and arranged an almost penitential visit by the Queen to the republic earlier this year. The Queen laid wreaths at sites memorialising Irish freedom fighters and visited the stadium where the 1920 Bloody Sunday massacre took place.
Mrs McAleese’s predecessor, Mary Robinson, was also a visionary, held in affection for transforming the ceremonial role into one with more warmth and meaning. She emphasised the needs of the marginalised and reached out to the Irish diaspora.
The bar is now set high — possibly too high for two well-known candidates whose campaigns have been tarnished by sexual allegations.
“Dana” Rosemary Scallon is so well known from her singing career that she goes by her stage name. She won a seat in the European Parliament stressing opposition to divorce and abortion and has had two previous tilts at the presidency.
But she is involved in a bitter family row over allegations by her sister, Susan Stein, that a brother abused Mrs Stein’s daughter as a child. Mrs Scallon last week said the allegations had emerged in the context of a court dispute over other matters in 2008 and had now “conveniently” re-emerged. She said she was sure they were malicious and untrue.
In response, Mrs Stein this week hired a libel lawyer. She claimed she had told Mrs Scallon about the alleged abuse when it was first disclosed years ago but Mrs Scallon had advised her to “protect the family name” by not telling others.
“Dana had a very respectable showing last time but she’s in complete meltdown now,” says John Waters, author and columnist for The Irish Times.
David Norris, the first openly gay person elected to public office in Ireland, had been a front-runner. But he withdrew in July after it emerged that in 1997 he wrote a letter to Israeli authorities pleading on behalf of former partner Ezra Yitzhak Nawi, who had been convicted of the statutory rape of a teenage boy.
Mr Waters says: “It’s been watered down as a letter for clemency, but it was a letter in which he misrepresented the situation because he didn’t allude at all to the fact that this was his [former] lover.”
Mr Norris has since re-entered the race and people are divided between those concerned about his judgment and those who see him as hounded by the media.
Still in with a chance is former IRA chief Martin McGuinness, who left his job as deputy chief minister in Northern Ireland, the culmination of his work in the peace process. He has said that the Irish are angry at the way the debt crisis has led to loss of sovereignty to the International Monetary Fund and the European Union.
“It is time for a president who will stand up for Ireland and the Irish people,” he said. “Ireland needs a new beginning, and I do new beginnings.”
He has also promised to be president for “the 32 counties” — republican code for a united Ireland, as there are 26 counties in the republic and six in Northern Ireland. It is not clear how he plans to do this.
Waters thinks Mr McGuinness has not stood up well to strong criticism over his paramilitary past, but Professor Guelke thinks those attacks are unfortunate: “The case is being made that he is morally unsuitable because of his past . . . People in [Northern Ireland] hear that, and Unionists will ask why he has been imposed on them. It gives legitimacy to the argument that the power-sharing arrangement shouldn’t be in place.”
On the other hand, both analysts see Gay Mitchell, the Fine Gael candidate, as part of the establishment in a country still furious at politicians for allowing the “Celtic tiger” to shrink to a mewling kitten.
Mary Davis’s performance in polls is lacklustre, but she shares some of the qualities of the past two presidents: she is a woman who emphasises caring and inclusion, her own background being decades of work with disabled people.
Which leaves the new guy and the old guy: Mr Gallagher and Mr Higgins. Professor Guelke says of Mr Higgins: “He’s elegant, intelligent, thoughtful . . . The thing that has counted against him is that he looks old. He does come across as an old man.”
And at 70, he has to convince voters he can maintain his vigour until he is 78. But he remains a front-runner, along with Mr Gallagher.
“The banana skin that’s waiting for Gallagher is his time in Fianna Fail [the main party of the previous government],” says Mr Waters. “But many people have an association with Fianna Fail and don’t regard it as a criminal offence.
“He’s a very charismatic guy. There’s a particular quality of the Irish personality that outsiders recognise: immediately on contact with another person there is a kind of spark, a warmth, instant banter, and an instant capacity to communicate in a very human, almost intimate way. Gallagher has this quality, and people feel they are meeting the real person.”

Euro zone needs action, not finger-pointing: Swan

World leaders have ‘absolutely no excuse for failure’ in managing the euro-zone crisis.

WORLD leaders have ”absolutely no excuse for failure” in managing the euro-zone crisis and must deliver a bold and credible plan at this weekend’s summit in Brussels, Treasurer Wayne Swan told an Austrade business luncheon in London overnight.

He said the outcome was important for Australia because it was not immune from Europe’s troubles. ”In spite of our strong fundamentals and tiny exposures to European banks, we shouldn’t kid ourselves that our economy isn’t already being hit by what’s happening here, or that it can’t be hit harder.”

He said the crisis had made the target of surplus by 2012-13 more difficult to achieve: ”The impact on confidence alone has had consequences for our own growth and budget revenue, and there is every prospect this could get worse if we accept ? that the extreme volatility of recent months is likely to continue for some time yet.”

He said traditional policy arsenals were depleted, and political divisions mired efforts to overcome problems on both sides of the Atlantic.

But he was confident that European finance ministers understood the seriousness of the threat and the need for political unity. But they needed to make more progress on Europe’s bailout fund, tackle debt levels and develop a plan to recapitalise the banking system.

”We know what is happening, we know what needs to be done, and we have a good understanding of the consequences if only half-measures are applied. We know that Europe needs to regain the confidence of markets. It needs to get its house in order and it needs to do this now by setting out credible plans for fiscal consolidation [reducing deficits and debts] ? The time for half-measures, the time for finger-pointing has long passed.”

Mr Swan said Prime Minister Julia Gillard would take the same call to action to a meeting of G20 leaders in Cannes in November. ”The world can ill-afford further hits to confidence,” he said.

Mr Swan also said the US should get its budget in order. ”There needs to be a concerted effort to support growth quickly and create jobs for the millions of US unemployed ? we still need the major components of President Obama’s jobs bill passed in some form.”

Speaking to BusinessDay before his speech, Mr Swan said millions of people ”depend on European leaders getting their skates on”.

First published in The Age.

 

He will also meet British Chancellor George Osborne and Bank of England governor Mervyn King.

Sorry still the hardest word for Strauss-Kahn

WHEN Dominique Strauss-Kahn appeared on French television to speak about his sexual encounter with a New York hotel maid, ”sorry” was not what he wanted to say.

The former head of the International Monetary Fund, who has lost both that position and his place as the favourite in next year’s French presidential elections over the scandal, did admit that his part in the encounter was ”a moral failure” he would regret his whole life.

”What happened was not only inappropriate … it was a fault: a fault towards my wife, my children, my friends, but also a fault towards the French people, who placed in me their hope for change.”

But while his scripted words were placatory, his angry, closed face was not. Mr Strauss-Kahn seemed to be talking of a strategic political error rather than expressing personal contrition. For much of his soft-pedal interview on Sunday night – with a TV journalist who is a close friend of his wife’s – Mr Strauss-Kahn seemed to radiate controlled rage. He strongly denied there had been any violence in his exchange with hotel maid Nafissatou Diallo, who had accused him in May of forcing her into oral sex after she arrived to clean his hotel room. New York prosecutors dropped the case after finding Ms Diallo, 32, had lied about her life story.

Mr Strauss-Kahn said there had been no sign of injury on either herself or him. ”[She] lied about everything . . it’s in the prosecutor’s report.”

He said the same thing about French writer Tristane Banon, also 30 years his junior, who has claimed he pounced on her like ”a rutting chimpanzee” when she went to interview him in 2003. Mr Strauss-Kahn, 62, has reportedly admitted that he tried to kiss her but said on Sunday that the assault claims were ”imaginary and slanderous”.

The scandal has reverberated. The US justice system was embarrassed when the case fell over because it had paraded a handcuffed Mr Strauss-Kahn in a walk of shame for TV cameras. For Mr Strauss-Kahn, the scandal means he can ”obviously” no longer be a presidential candidate in 2012, he said. Left-wing daily Liberation published a survey in which more than half of voters hoped that Mr Strauss-Kahn, formerly seen as likely to unseat centre-right President Nicolas Sarkozy, would bow out of the race.

For French Socialists, the scandal has knocked out their best hope. This might boost far-right leader Marine Le Pen and her new-look Front National.

For French society, the scandal has meant a debate over tolerance of the sexual privacy of public figures, and over the question of whether droit du seigneur – the mythic right of a lord to bed women in his fiefdom – lives on in the behaviour of some of its powerful men. For observers of human nature, it has been wry evidence of a related phenomenon: the ageing Lothario’s dogged belief in his own eternal irresistibility.

First published in The Age.

British soldiers conducted ‘choir of pain’ in Basra

LONDON

THE British army has suspended several soldiers and more prosecutions are possible following a devastating report into abuse of Iraqi civilians by British soldiers in Basra in 2003.
A young widower, hotel receptionist Baha Mousa, left behind two orphaned children after soldiers beat him to death after mistaking him for an insurgent. His body carried 93 external injuries.
An officer who visited the Basra detention centre told the inquiry, chaired by retired judge Sir William Gage, that Mousa and nine other detainees looked as though they had been “in a car crash”.
The report has been handed to civilian and military prosecutors “to see whether more can be done to bring those responsible to justice”, British defence secretary Liam Fox told Parliament. He said Ministry of Defence inquiries “are revealing evidence of some concern in other cases”.
He promised: “If any serviceman or woman . . . is found to have betrayed the values this country stands for and the standards we hold dear, they will be held to account.”
The report found that the military had allowed all reference to a ban on inhumane techniques to be removed from training programs and practice manuals, and even made some of the techniques standard operating procedure.
Methods used on suspects in Northern Ireland — wall-standing, hooding, subjection to noise, deprivation of sleep, and deprivation of food and water — were banned by Britain in 1972. They were later declared illegal by the European Court of Human Rights.
Mr Fox admitted there had been a systemic failure by the army to publicise and enforce the ban. The report concluded that at the time of the Iraq invasion, “there was no proper MoD doctrine on interrogation of prisoners of war that was generally available”.
Mr Mousa, 26, and nine other civilians held in Basra were hooded for most of their 36 hours in British custody and forced to stand with knees bent against a wall with their arms in the air.
They were beaten with metal bars, had their genitals kicked and their eyes gouged, and were subjected to a grotesque parody of a choir in which they were hit in turn, “causing them to emit groans and other noises and thereby playing them like musical instruments”, the report said.
A total of 19 soldiers were named as responsible but only one has so far been punished. Corporal Donald Payne served a year in jail following a court-martial over Mr Mousa’s death.
General Sir Peter Wall, chief of the general staff of the army, said several soldiers had been suspended and the military’s provost martial would investigate whether anyone else should be disciplined.
The report was also scathing about the unit’s doctor, who faces a disciplinary tribunal by the General Medical Council, and its Catholic priest, who will be interviewed by his archbishop.First published in The Age.

McGuinness may have too much baggage for Ireland

IT IS NOT often that a man who wants to be president of a western democracy faces questions about whether he has blood on his hands.
But that is exactly what happened this week to Martin McGuinness, a former leader of the Provisional Irish Republican Army who is running for Ireland’s presidency.
Had he ever killed anyone in his time with the IRA? a reporter asked bluntly during an interview in Cork. “No,” he replied.
Mr McGuinness also denied that he had ever been indirectly responsible for people being killed by the IRA.
“I didn’t say I never fired a gun – I was in the IRA. There were battles on the streets of Derry. I’ve never run away from that,” he said.
But he has never answered for it either, and that is what troubles his critics.
Northern Ireland is at peace, the IRA supposedly disbanded, and Mr McGuinness is one of the chief architects of this new political landscape. Whether the people of the Irish republic will see fit to reward him with the position of head of state is another question, but his bold move has added spice to what had been a rather bland election.
Mr McGuinness, 61, belongs to Sinn Fein (Ourselves Alone), the political arm of the Irish republican movement. Until he nominated for the presidency he was the Deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland, a role in which he served at first beside his longtime foe, unionist leader Ian Paisley. The two had worked together to produce the Good Friday peace accord in 1998. They developed such a good public relationship, joking in front of the cameras, that they were nicknamed “the chuckle brothers”.
“There’s a lot of admiration for McGuinness as someone who was central to the peace process in Northern Ireland and none of his critics would take any of that away from him,” said Fintan O’Toole, a political columnist with The Irish Times. “He’s been a very effective player and the way he bonded with Ian Paisley and entered the executive is amazing, really.”
It has allowed Mr McGuinness to brand himself a peacemaker – and this is where O’Toole baulks.
“A lot of people have difficulty in that regard with someone who embodied the values of the IRA for such a long time and has never given a proper account of what he’s done in the IRA,” he said. “He’s effectively refusing even to discuss it, claiming questions about it are politically motivated … The point of the IRA was to kill people.”
By the age of 21, Mr McGuinness was second in command of the IRA in Londonderry. The inquiry into Bloody Sunday concluded he was probably carrying a Thompson submachine-gun that day but had done nothing to trigger the soldiers’ shooting.
In 1973, he was jailed for six months after being caught in a car with 113 kilograms of explosives and nearly 5000 rounds of ammunition. It has since been claimed that they were not intended to kill anybody.
But O’Toole said he and many others question some of Mr McGuinness’s denials. He spoke of the 1700 people killed by the IRA, 644 of whom were civilians, and the many more who were tortured or maimed.
“There are families in Northern Ireland on both sides who feel very raw,” he said. “There has never been accountability, never been a trial. No one has been held responsible for their loved ones.”
But a flash poll associated with an afternoon talk show seen as an uncanny barometer of middle Ireland found Mr McGuinness to be the favourite candidate, with 5700 votes, 200 votes ahead of the next most popular choice. He has said that he considered himself to be part of a new atmosphere: “The people of Ireland have watched the political progress that Gerry Adams and I have been at the heart of for many years.”
He has promised that he will take only the average wage, about €35,000 ($47,712), and give the rest of the €250,000 salary back to the Irish people, a move that might mollify voters resentful about Ireland’s austerity program.
Sinn Fein is well placed to harness the anger of the many people disillusioned with the establishment following the crash that brought in the International Monetary Fund, says Elaine Byrne, lecturer in politics at Trinity College, Dublin.
In the south, Sinn Fein “has always been a small party on the periphery who object to everything. There’s the Sinn Fein in power in the north which is introducing cuts; the one in the south is opposed to all cuts,” she said.
Dr Byrne also pointed out that younger generations had no personal memory of the Troubles.
O’Toole said that to many nationalists, Mr McGuinness is a positive figure. “There’s a great desire in a country going through tough times to have a hero,” he said. But there is the delicate question of how Mr McGuinness would manage the Queen. Like all Sinn Fein MPs, who want a united Ireland, Mr McGuinness refused to take his seat at Westminster, and the party avoided all events associated with the Queen’s visit to Ireland. But Mr McGuinness said he would be prepared to meet all heads of state “without exception” if elected on October 27.
One critic pointed out the issue might be whether the Queen was prepared to meet him: the IRA murdered Prince Philip’s uncle, Lord Mountbatten, in 1979.
Dr Byrne and O’Toole believe Mr McGuinness will poll well but ultimately not get over the line. Dr Byrne said he was unlikely to attract enough preferences from other candidates. She pointed out that this term of office holds special significance: whoever wins will preside over the 100th anniversary of the 1916 Easter Rising, the rebellion that started the chain of events that led to Irish independence.
“These are emotional things in Ireland,” she said. “It’s all very fresh in people’s minds.”

Dangerous liaisons: the lessons of election 1940

WHILE the nation has not been faced with a hung parliament since 1940, it has occurred at times throughout the states and territories in the decades since then. Some of the resulting marriages of convenience have been pragmatic and steady, and some poisonously volatile.
The seeds for the 1940 stand-off were sown the year before when prime minister Joseph Lyons died in office. His United Australia Party eventually elected Robert Menzies as leader, who became prime minister.
After his first election as leader, in September 1940, Mr Menzies’ UAP-Country Party coalition won 36 seats. This created a stand-off with the ALP, which had 32 seats, and the four members of Lang Labor, a breakaway group loyal to sacked NSW Labor premier Jack Lang. There were also two independents, Arthur Coles and Alexander Wilson, who came from seats traditionally non-Labor. They held the balance of power.
Mr Coles and Mr Wilson backed Mr Menzies but support for him as leader collapsed within his own party. He was forced to stand down as prime minister in August 1941 and he was replaced by the Country Party’s Arthur Fadden.
Mr Coles and Mr Wilson disliked this government and, in October 1941, they blocked the budget. This gave power to Labor’s John Curtin, who became prime minister and went on to romp home in the 1943 federal election.
Victoria faced a minority government in 1999, when the ALP’s Steve Bracks had to rely on three independents.

TRUE BLUE

FOCUS – Election 2006: A TALE OF TWO SEATS
In the final part of a series profiling the safest conservative and Labor seats, Karen Kissane visits the blue-collar heartland of Melbourne’s north – the ALP stronghold of Thomastown.
TONY FIERA is a working man, with a working-man’s derision for politicians with soft hands. They do not understand the realities of a life for men like him and his father-in-law, who spent his working life pouring concrete.
“John Howard has been telling people, ‘You should work longer years, after 65.’ Do you see any people working concrete after 65? They can’t. Mostly their knees and back go; after 55, they’re gone. If you are a person like John Howard, you don’t have to retire. But ask him how many times he’s put petrol in his own car in the last few years.”
Says Tony’s wife, Carmel, equally scornful: “Or dug holes!”
They look at each other and laugh, remembering. Tony says, “We saw him on TV the other day, trying to plant something with a shovel. He could not even scratch the surface. He had no idea.”
The Fieras are an Italian-Australian family who live in a yellow brick-veneer house in Fawkner. Tony, who has a reserved manner and an analytical mind, was born in Sicily and came here in 1984; the exuberant, hospitable Carmel was born in Melbourne of Italian migrants. They have three teenage children, Matthew, Maree and Laura, with whom there is a lot of boisterous banter. They also have a loyalty to Labor that is based more on their world view than on their satisfaction with the party’s performance at either state or federal level.
It is not a loyalty that has been entirely inherited by their children. Their son Matthew, 18, likes to throw mischievous grenades into the conversation at regular intervals but he is not joking when he says that at the next federal election, “I’m going to vote for good old Johnny. Howard’s doing all right at maintaining the country. We’re not living in a country that’s falling apart.”
Matthew’s parents take this news with equanimity. They believe the kids should be allowed to form their own views. Laura, 13, says she has no interest in politics yet but Maree, 16, shares a bit of her mother’s cynicism, at least about the federal leaders: “John Howard is not doing good, like in the Iraq war, and Beazley – it seems like he’s just really desperate to be prime minister. So they both don’t seem good; I really wouldn’t vote for either of them.”
The Fiera family’s mix of political attitudes illustrates many of the phenomena political scientists describe in research about why Australians vote the way they do: the loosening of ties to parties, the passive benefit to an incumbent leader, cynicism about the role of government and politicians, and the primacy of self-interest over altruism.
The Fieras are a typical family in the state seat of Thomastown, the most strongly pro-Labor electorate in Victoria. It contains the northern suburbs of Fawkner and Reservoir and parts of Epping, Lalor and Thomastown. It is Victoria’s safest seat, needing a swing of 31.75 per cent to fall to the Liberals.
Thomastown is the home of the migrant success story, despite its higher-than-average unemployment and lower-than-average income levels. According to Batchelor, 49 per cent of his constituents were born overseas, with Italians, Macedonians and Greeks making up the biggest ethnic groups. They are mostly working people – “they are production workers or transport workers, typically”, says Batchelor. But the seat has one of the highest rates of home ownership in the state, with more than 80 per cent of adults either owning their own home or paying it off.
“They have worked very hard, often in low-paid jobs – labouring jobs, not high-tech jobs – but nevertheless they have placed very great importance on personal security and having a home,” Batchelor says.
Tony Fiera, 52, has certainly worked hard, at first in factory jobs and now in the warehouse and at the front counter of a company that imports Italian machinery for making wine and traditional food such as salami. In his free time, he brews his own beer and grows his own tomatoes in his backyard. Tony came from a soft-left family in Italy and has always voted Labor in Australia but has no idea whether most of his friends and colleagues share his views.
“You cannot tell, here,” he shrugs. “It’s not like in Europe. In Europe, politics is a topic in everyday life. Everybody every day is talking about it. Here, you only hear about politicians and politics when it’s time to vote, the time when you see them shaking hands and kissing babies.”
Carmel’s parents were Labor voters but she takes little interest in politics because she is cynical about it: “It doesn’t matter who you vote for. It’s still the same. Nothing much is going to change.” When she has to pay attention, when she is heading for a voting booth, “I ask Tony, ‘Who are we voting for today, love?’ … Tony’s got more patience for it. I haven’t. It’s all confusing.”
Tony disagrees: “It’s not confusing. If you know what’s happening then it’s easy.”
Carmel protests: “I still don’t know who to believe – ‘Is it true, or is it not?’ ” This does strike a chord with her husband. “The first thing you learn as a politician is to lie. (Both sides) don’t tell you the truth. They cover up for each other and they give jobs to their friends and they try to make it easier for themselves … (Look at) the wheat scandal.”
Such perceptions could be one reason for the widespread lack of interest in politics reported by many researchers. “An awful lot of people have tuned out of politics,” says John Armitage of Auspoll.
Social researcher Hugh Mackay agrees. “This is the era of political disengagement. I have noticed over the last five years an incredible reluctance to talk about politics. I think it’s because people are preoccupied with too much change, too much uncertainty, so we insulate ourselves and focus on renovations and the kids’ schooling.”
Along with this disengagement has come a softening of Australians’ party loyalties. Workers such as the Fieras used to be “rusted-on” Labor voters; now, particularly in growth-corridor electorates, it is not uncommon for people to vote Labor at the state level and Liberal at the federal level. “There is a 15 per cent gap in the support for Bracks compared to Howard in some Victorian seats,” Armitage says.
Matthew Fiera fits this category. He is growing into an “aspirational” voter; he has just bought his first car for $12,000, half of which he paid for out of his own earnings from a part-time job (his parents matched his savings dollar for dollar because they wanted him to learn that he has to work for his goals).
Matthew is doing his year 12 exams. He aims to be a civil engineer and jokes that by 30, he wants to have made his first million and to own a high-rise apartment at Docklands and a car for every day of the week. “Everything comes with hard work,” is his mantra.
Despite his support for Prime Minister John Howard, when he votes for the first time in the state election on November 25, Matthew says he will probably vote for Bracks. “He is doing a sufficient job at the moment and I see no need for a replacement. Besides, there’s nothing in particular that attracts me into voting for Baillieu.”
Matthew’s preference for political stability is also part of a more widespread phenomenon, according to Hugh Mackay, one that benefits an incumbent political leader. “Australian electorates, both federal and state, are notoriously inert,” he says. “They are very reluctant to make changes. Going back 50 years or more, it’s extremely unusual to see a one-term or even a two-term government.”
At the same time, though, in another way Australian voting patterns have become more fluid over the years. Brian Costar, professor of Victorian parliamentary democracy at Swinburne University, says we now have more swinging voters. This is assessed by research in which voters are asked whether their identification with a particular party is not very strong, strong, or very strong.
“The big fall is among people who used to say ‘very strongly’. They’ve fallen from 33 per cent in 1967 to 18 per cent in 1990, which is the latest figures I’ve got,” Costar says. “Whereas people who say that they are ‘not very strongly’ identified has risen from 23 per cent in 1967 to 35 per cent.
“So party identification has weakened over the past 30 years but not as much as in other countries such as the US and Britain and parts of Europe.”
Even Tony Fiera, who has always voted Labor, is feeling jaded about his party. “I think that here in Victoria Labor has become a little bit slack. It just blows with the wind. It does nothing so that it cannot make mistakes … They charge us tax like everybody else, but in return I would like to see social things like roads or schools.”
The Fiera children go to a Catholic secondary school, Penola College, not for religious reasons but because Carmel and Tony did not have faith in the academic standards of the local state high schools. “We should not send our kids to private school,” says Tony irritably. “What’s the reason? The public schools were not good enough.” Agrees Carmel: “They’ve slacked off. And there’s more rules at a private school, and they give them goals and values.”
BUT Tony’s disaffection does not extend to contemplating voting Liberal in the state election. “Baillieu, what has he done? He’s worse than Jeff Kennett. Jeff Kennett had good ideas; if he kept his mouth shut, he would still be premier, but the problem with him was he did not appreciate what he had.”
Tony Fiera did not like many of Kennett’s reforms, though: “He didn’t do any good for us. He took away two days of public holidays, sold the schools, and holiday loading was struck off, and so was civil court claims if you had an accident.”
Carmel is worried about the effect industrial relations changes are having on family life. She and Matthew and Maree all work at Kmart part-time (jokes Tony, “We’re taking over Kmart, starting at the bottom!”). Carmel, 43, likes her job and is chuffed that she has been chosen to run the store’s Christmas gift program for poor children. But she says that when she was young there was much more time for family life: “Now, with this seven-day trade, there’s nothing. I’m working on weekends and so are the kids, so you can’t say, ‘Right, let’s have a family Sunday together’, like the old family lunch or picnic. We have to write it on the fridge, ‘What time are you working?’ ”
They may not put it quite this way, but the Fieras have a strong sense of social justice. It’s as if their traditional Italian attitudes about the importance of family and community are projected onto the broader canvas. Matthew, asked about what worries him most, says without hesitation: “Probably the lack of understanding in the world, the inability to see eye to eye. There’s so much war, so much hatred. If the world keeps deteriorating the way it is now, I can’t even imagine bringing up my kids and trying to explain why (terrorists) take so many lives.”
For Carmel, the most troubling thing she sees on television is Third World poverty. “All those poor countries, these poor kids with flies eating them and no food and no housing and no clothing. Nobody should be in that situation.”
Closer to home, Carmel worries about society’s failure to care for its seniors: “They should have more nursing homes for the elderlies, look after them. They have done so much, sacrificing their lives, working in Australia.”
Tony agrees: “Respect for the oldies comes first of all, but governments don’t take care about you after you finish paying tax. They use you and then throw you away. If you don’t have super or savings, they make you live on about $15,000 a year – if you can. There are all these dirty hospitals where you have to wait six months for an operation. Older people, they need more care.”
So, here’s the big question: given all these concerns, do the Fieras vote for what is good for themselves and their loved ones, or do they vote for the greater good? Is there a place for altruism?
Carmel says with determination, “Family first. It would depend on how it would affect us and our children.”
Young Matthew, like so many teenagers, would like to have his cake and eat it too. “I would be altruistic,” he grins wickedly, “as long as me and my family are part of that group (that would benefit). I would vote for the common good, provided we’re in it.”
THOMASTOWN
SITTING MEMBER Peter Batchelor, (ALP), Transport Minister
SWING REQUIRED 31.75 per cent
KEY FACTS
– $700-$799 median weekly family income (state median $800-$899).
– Highest proportion of people speaking a language other than English at home (65.6 per cent, state average of 20 per cent).
– The seat with the highest proportion of people with no qualifications (68.4 per cent, average 53.7 per cent).
– 10 per cent unemployment (state average 6.8 per cent).
SOURCE: THE VICTORIAN ELECTORAL COMMISSION and 2001 CENSUS DATA.

First published in The Age.

CONSERVATIVE, NATURALLY

Focus
As the major parties scramble over marginal seats and woo undecided voters, most Victorians’ political views are set – they are conservative or Labor. In the first of a twopart series, Karen Kissane profiles the safest conservative seat in the state, Lowan.
THEY were childhood sweethearts, the Easticks.
Christine and Robert went to school together in the little Wimmera town of Nhill. They started dating when they were in year 8 and year 9 respectively. They went their own way for a bit but ended up back together and married when she was 19 and he was 21. It wasn’t unusual back then, not in the country anyway. “A lot of people in this area were the same,” says Chris.
That was 28 years ago, a time when young people did not have to leave town to find a job, or to find a life partner; a time when it was possible to thrive by living pretty much as your parents had done. Until this year that approach has worked well for the Easticks, both from local farming families, who now have four daughters and work 4500 acres (1820 hectares). Farmers talk about distances in kilometres and fuel in litres but they size up their precious land in acres, the way their fathers did.
Some things are best done the traditional way.
Like voting, for instance. Rob Eastick votes National Party and always has.
He sees voting conservatively as part of the natural order for country people. “I don’t know a farmer who votes Labor,” he says. “Here, you’re born with it in your blood.”
Christine says she knows little about politics so she simply votes the way her husband and her father do. “We’ve just always been National Party. I don’t go looking at Labor’s ideas because I probably wouldn’t understand it very well, and I’m happy to vote how farmers like to vote. That’s really all I go by.”
Times are changing. Forty years ago, 23 per cent of Australians said they had no strong identification with any political party. Now, it is looser, with about 35 per cent saying they have no party loyalty. But the vast majority still vote steadily in one direction. Their politics is part of their identity and their way of seeing the world, whether they think of themselves as “political” or not.
In Victoria, there are 26 seats outside the Melbourne area but probably only 13 could truly be called “rural”.
Generally, farmers vote conservatively, although a couple of rural seats – Narracan and Ripon – swung to Labor in the rural backlash election that ousted Jeff Kennett.
The Easticks are, politically speaking, typical of the seat in which they live. Nhill is in Lowan, the largest and the most conservative electoral district in the state. It stretches from the Big Desert to within 10 kilometres of the coast and includes the wheat-growing area of the Wimmera, the wool-growing western district, and the towns of Horsham and Hamilton. Its population is one of the oldest and most Anglo in Victoria; Lowan has almost no residents from non-English-speaking backgrounds.
Nhill has 2000 residents and sits on the Adelaide-Melbourne highway.
Its shire, Hindmarsh, produces 90 per cent of Victoria’s ducks and 10 per cent of the state’s grain and oilseeds.
Labor would need a swing of 17.09 per cent to win Lowan, which has always been staunchly right wing, moving only from Liberal to National in their various incarnations.”
When you walk down the street of a country town, you realise that regional Victoria doesn’t look all that different to how it looked in the 1950s, in terms of faces on the street,” says Brian Costar, professor of Victorian state parliamentary democracy at Swinburne University. “The immediate thing that hits you is the lack of ethnic diversity.
And, therefore, issues that have moved people in the cities don’t always move people in the bush. There has also been a youth exodus from the country, so it is left with a really skewed older age group, and the aged are more politically conservative than the young.”
And finally, he says, there is the fact that social networks in rural areas, despite the distances involved, are tight: “The effect of what’s called in the jargon ‘voter contagion’ – that is, friends and neighbours – is very powerful.”
Locals call Nhill and surrounds “the bush” but there is little greenery. Trees are sparse, planted like straggling sentinels on roadsides or around the rim of paddocks. The land is flat and brown.
Many country towns are dominated by a big church on a hill; in Nhill, the biggest buildings are the fat silver silos that hold the grain. Across the baking heat of the main street wafts the smell of real baking – the toasted muesli that is a mainstay of one of the big local factories, Lowan Whole Foods, which runs three shifts a day. Nhill is keeping afloat despite almost a decade of drought partly because of jobs at Lowan, Luv-A-Duck and other “valueadding” industries in the area.
The Eastick property, a wide white house sitting in the middle of a stand of box and gum trees, is about 10 kilometres from Nhill. Politics is not much of a topic for discussion in the Eastick home, they all agree; it is a very distant hum in the background of their lives.
Rob, a genial man with a dry sense of humour, keeps up; he listens to John Laws and Richard Stubbs on the radio while he is out on his tractor. Christine, who is quieter but whose questions are sharp, has no interest in politics. She worked at a bank before having children but is now busy running the family and the local junior tennis and is treasurer of the district tennis association.
Danielle, 16, has started watching the nightly news because she recently had a work-experience stint at a Melbourne television station but says the issues just kind of wash over her. Breanna, 14, says of politics, “I don’t get them, and I don’t like them. They’re boring.”
The principal of Nhill College, Neville Trotman, says locals generally don’t talk politics much: “I think for country people it’s work and play. You work hard, and then you try and enjoy yourself.”
Christine Eastick has always worked at home, for the sake of the children, but she thinks she might have to get a job outside the farm if things don’t improve soon. This is a time of year where Rob usually takes pleasure in strolling through his wheat crops and letting his hands brush the heads of the laden stalks; when his canola is so high that he has to walk on tip-toe through the fields to be able to see over it.
Not this year. This year he will take nothing to the silo. What little grain he gets will be kept for seed for next year in the hope rain will come then. He has a barley paddock with no heads on the stalks; an oat field that is a sea of dirt; a wheat crop that should be topping the fence but which sits at a stunted 10 centimetres. The canola that should be head-high is barely off the ground.
It has cost him $450,000 to sow these crops – $100 an acre. “It’s an enormous loss,” he says, shaking his head.”
Enormous. We live for next year now.
This year’s gone. What else can we do?
Go to the casino?” He grins. “No. We’ve already gambled our money.”
It’s a joke, of course. The Easticks are careful people, like most farmers. Their property is big by the standards of the area but their comfortable house is modest when compared with, say, the grandiosity of McMansions in suburban Melbourne. In the good years they have done what farmers have done for millenniums: bought more land.
More recently, sizeable crops in 2001 and 2003 allowed them to stash a bit of money into farm management deposits.
Rob says, “It’s about being lean in the good years so you can be comfortable in the bad years. But we won’t be comfortable. I’ve never had a loss like we will have this year.”
Along with thrift, self-reliance is a key value in the bush. Rob Eastick is captain of the local CFA. When locals rolled a car up the road recently, it was he and his team who turned out to rescue them.
It is these beliefs – being careful with resources, taking responsibility and giving back to the community – that underpin Rob’s political views and, therefore, his family’s.”
Labor always seem to have plenty to spend,” he says critically. “They’re not conservative. Farmers are conservative people. They have to be.”
Look what happened in the Cain-Kirner years. They got the state in all sorts of trouble; debt. Kennett came in, yo, bang, ran a profit, got heaps of money in the kitty. And I think Labor is spending Jeff Kennett’s money still ¿ They’ve just found another $800 million they didn’t know they had.” He smiles.”
I don’t know who their accountant is.”
SO THE fact that Nhill boasts a new 32-bed hospital, and a new fire station and police station, and that his daughters’ state school has been dramatically rebuilt and expanded – well, that cuts no ice with Rob Eastick. He cannot imagine ever voting Labor. He concedes that “the Labor Government’s probably been good for the town”, and he likes Steve Bracks, but he thinks a conservative government could be better relied upon to “put a few dollars away”.
Rob Eastick votes for men whom he believes share his experience of life. “(Local Nationals member) Hugh (Delahunty) is an ex-farmer, and Bill McGrath before him was a farmer. Jim McCabe before him was a Liberal politician and a farmer. They understand.”
But he admits that he is not happy with the state Liberal Party. “Ted Baillieu is the new fella on the block, isn’t he? They don’t seem to have ¿” he pauses, searching for the words.
His wife supplies them: “A decent leader.” Rob nods and says, “You need to have a charismatic type. Like Paul Keating. He was just a good bloke on the wrong side. I think for a political party to be very successful they need a great leader, and the opposition here haven’t had one since Jeff Kennett ¿ He could have still been there if he hadn’t been so damn arrogant.”
The Easticks’ two younger daughters listen intently from across the big kitchen table, never interrupting to put their own views or ask a question. Their two older sisters have moved out of home: Lisa, 21, is at university in Warrnambool, and Jenna, 19, has qualified as a personal trainer in Melbourne.
Sixteen-year-old daughter Danielle, asked about her likely preferences, smiles shyly and says she will probably vote the way her parents do. “They know what’s right; you know, what’s best for us.”
The influence of parents’ political views is a stronger factor in how people vote than either income or gender, according to John Armitage of Auspoll.”
US research has shown that in normal times, about two-thirds of people will inherit their political values from their parents,” he says.
This is how it works in families like the Easticks, where both parents share political views. Where parents are divided, it becomes more interesting.”
If the parents are split and they are upfront about it with their kids, the daughter will follow the father and the son will follow the mother,” says Costar.”
No one knows why.”
There is a strong sense of the country- city divide in Nhill. Farmers you chat to almost invariably give you a lecture on how city folk are too extravagant with water. There is also a sense, when talking to the Easticks and other Nhill locals, that country people feel they don’t rate high on government handout lists.
During the week the media are full of new announcements of money for drought relief. Is there a contradiction between the Easticks’ dislike of big-spending governments, and the fact that farmers need buckets of government money to back them up in hard times?
Rob Eastick looks at his wife. “Have you seen any in our bank account?” he asks drily.
Says Christine, “No, but I suppose we haven’t applied for any. There wouldn’t be too many around this area that have had any.”
Rob chuckles. “You have to pass ‘exceptional circumstances’ criteria, although after this drought that will be easier to do. But so far, it’s been hard.
My brother-in-law is up in the Mallee and they’ve had a lot worse ¿ and they couldn’t get it either. It comes down to assets. But you can’t eat assets, you can only borrow against them.”
The biggeset worry on Rob Eastick’s mind is one that he knows no government can help with. He spends a lot of time thinking about succession. His family have worked the area since the 1890s, and now he is the only male Eastick in his generation. He would hate to think his family’s generations of work will end in strangers’ hands.
But local farms are having trouble not just with water but with their young, whom they are losing to the cities.
Rob Eastick has told his daughters that whoever keeps her surname after marriage can have the farm. He has encouraged his youngest, Breanna, to think about whether she would like to take it on. Breanna loves the outdoors and harvested a load of wheat when she was still in primary school. “I like being on the farm,” Breanna agrees.”
But I don’t know yet whether I’ll still like it when I’m older.”
Says Rob, “Nothing would give me more pleasure than for one of these kids to perhaps marry a nice young local fella but even the local boys aren’t stopping.”
Earlier, his wife Chris mentioned that they might sell up completely if all the girls move away. Rob had dived in to say he couldn’t bear that prospect: “I could sell the land I’ve bought, but I don’t think I could sell this piece where we’re sitting now. It’s where I was brought up, where I was born, it’s the original Eastick property.”
Now, it is again Chris who prods him about unwanted change: “If we’re talking a long-term drought, and there’s no money in farming, would you still feel that way then? Would you want your daughter to take it on?” His answer is out almost before she has finished asking: “No.”
LOWAN
SITTING MEMBER Hugh Delanhunty (National Party)
SWING REQUIRED 17.1%
MEDIAN FAMILY INCOME $700-$799
KEY FACTS
– 26.5% employed in agriculture, forestry and fishing (Victorian average is 3.5%).
– Lowest population density in the state, with just 1.5 people per square kilometre.
– 17.2% are aged over 65 (Victorian average is 12.7%).
– Just 2% were born in non-English-speaking countries (Victorian average 16.8%).

First published in The Age.

Easy does it for a premier-in-waiting

ELECTION 2006 – NOTEBOOK
KAREN KISSANE   THE first thing you notice about Ted Baillieu is his height. Six foot seven in the old lingo, (190 centimetres for those under 40). But he somehow manages to tower over everyone around him without being an imposing presence. He has a small cleft in his chin and a funny gap between his front teeth, which are ever so slightly bucked. His voice is light and soft, his stance casual, his manners gentle. It seems the state Liberal Party has abandoned its penchant for alpha males. This guy’s never going to shovel dirt at photographers.
In fact, Ted Baillieu comes across as just a little shy. He is articulate enough; the words flow. He faces media packs with composure and assents courteously to the ridiculous rituals of life on the stump: he walks back and forth for the cameras, starts his speech over for reporters who arrive late, tries not to look embarrassed as he crouches beside a dentist’s chair for a picture to go with his new policy on Victoria’s teeth.
He has his messages all down pat: John Brumby and his wobbly figures have a struggle with credibility, the Government is “taxing the stuffing out of the state”, the Government is stealing Liberal Party policies but fails to follow through with substantial change. “This Government’s been in power for seven years,” he says. “They’ve had incredible opportunity, they’ve had coffers overflowing, they’ve had mates all over the place. There’s been absolutely no reason why they couldn’t deliver, but they haven’t delivered. And increasingly they have turned this state from a can-do state to a might-do state.”
But he delivers all this tub-thumping rhetoric quietly. This politician seems to be a bombast-free zone. As he speaks to the out-thrust microphones and tape machines, he occasionally moves his hands from being clasped in front of him to being clasped behind him. There, they tremble, a sign perhaps of nerves.
Yesterday, he began his public appearances with a stop on Mordialloc beach to promise more sand, followed by a walk through weeds in Sandringham to promise a new police station on a vacant lot for which Labor had promised a police station in 1988. By noon, it is Bentleigh, and a policy of $30 million more for dental services and $3 million for scholarships for dentists. Mr Baillieu plants himself on the pavement for an interview.
A journalist asks: “The writs are under way. How are you feeling? Are you ‘pumped?’ ”
“I’m ‘pumped’,” he assures them, in the same relaxed tone. “I’ve swum this morning.”
From another: “Are you tired of (former opposition leader) Robert Doyle taking pot shots in The Sunday Age?”
He says smoothly: “No, I think Robert is making a very valuable contribution.”
“By pointing out there’s no coherent overall link to all your policies?”
Mr Baillieu stands firm: “I don’t think Robert was saying that at all.”
Asks a third: “Have you tried to almost ‘channel’ some of the Kennett government paraphernalia with your ‘Let’s get Victoria moving’?”
Says Mr Baillieu: “No, we are reflecting a mood in the community that this state is starting to stagnate.”
There was one moment of genuine excitement. Driving from one venue to another, Mr Baillieu and his party were almost hit by a large blue bus that swung nonchalantly out in front of them. Mr Baillieu’s driver had to swerve to the wrong side of the road where, luckily, he met no oncoming traffic.
Joking about it later with journalists, Mr Baillieu says: “You guys would have been there with your cameras going ‘click click click, no don’t help him, can you just wipe that blood from your eye, Mr Baillieu?’ ”
He’s getting ahead of himself. According to the opinion polls, it is on election night that that might happen to him.
TED BAILLIEU
AGE 53
SEAT Hawthorn
ENTERED PARLIAMENT September 1999
FAMILY Married with three children
CAMPAIGN SLOGAN “Let’s get Victoria moving again”
LINK
www.vic.liberal.org.au

First published in The Age.